Forecasting
Forecasting starts with the supply chain, not the market
Before we hedge anything, we forecast how your specific exposures are likely to move - because a generic market forecast won't tell you what your business actually carries.
Inputs
What goes into a forecast
Supplier contracts
Currency of invoice, payment terms, renewal dates.
Logistics routes
Lanes, carriers, fuel exposure, transit time.
Commodity inputs
Raw materials embedded in your cost of goods.
Market data
Rates, spot prices, and volatility across each exposure.
Method
From exposure map to forecast
Map the exposure
We document where currency, commodity, and logistics risk actually sit in your supply chain - by supplier, route, and contract.
Model each driver
Each exposure is forecast on its own terms: an FX pair behaves differently from a freight lane, and we model them separately before combining them.
Combine with correlation in mind
Exposures rarely move independently. We account for how they correlate, so the combined forecast reflects your actual risk, not the sum of isolated parts.
See your forecast next to your hedge
We'll walk through what we'd forecast for your specific exposures.